Shahla Nazneen,Tehreem Ayaz, Yamna Durrani, Neelum Ali, Min Lei, Saeeda Yousa Meteorological drought measurement with deficit in rainfall occurrence according to SPI indices: a case study of Peshawar, Pakistan // Аридные экосистемы. 2023. Том 29. № 1 (94). С. 36-45. | PDF
The study aimed to analyze the probability of occurrence/severity situation of meteorological drought in Peshawar, Pakistan and its impacts on agriculture. Therefore, the past 30-years (1986-2016) meteorological data was collected from Peshawar Meteorological Department and analyzed through Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought software for mild, moderate, severe and extreme droughts on monthly, seasonally and annually basis. Results for the monthly and seasonal analysis found that severe and extreme droughts occurred mostly in May and June in summer, and March and April in spring seasons. The annually basis analysis found severe drought for the years 1989, 2000, 2001 and 2006, in which the most extreme drought year was 2001. Furthermore, the probability of occurrence/percentage of mild drought (12-month) in past 30 years was calculated 34%, moderate 9%, severe 8% and extreme drought 1.6%, These results also provide an insight of drought probability of occurrence and severity in next hundred years. The study concluded that most immediate consequence of drought can be seen in a fall in crop production. No work has been conducted before on measurement of meteorological drought of Peshawar through SPI. Therefore, it is a novel study and will contribute towards preparing for the drought which may affect the crops of Peshawar.
Keywords: Drought; Meteorological Drought; SPI; Probability of recurrence; Precipitation Deficit and Shortfall.